In what regards the state of the art in Artificial Intelligence, and the speed that it will develop, James Barrat is extremely optimistic. The author of Our Final Invention is fully convinced that existing systems are much more advanced than we give them credit for, and also that AI researchers will create Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) much sooner than we expect.
In what regards the consequences of AGI, however, Barrat is uncompromisingly pessimistic. He believes, and argues at length, that AGI will bring with it the demise of the human race and that we should stop messing with advanced AI altogether.
I found the arguments presented for both positions rather unconvincing. His argument for the most likely development of AGI in the next decade or so is based on rather high-level considerations and conversations with a number of scientists, researchers, and entrepreneurs from the field. Needless to say, they were picked from the ones most connected with his ideas. As for the arguments that AGI will be not only dangerous but, ultimately, fatal for humanity, they are borrowed, with minor changes, from the standard superintelligence (Bostrom) and intelligence explosion (I. J. Good) ideas.
From Watson’s performance in Jeopardy and from the ANN’s small victories in the perception fields, Barrat concludes, without any additional considerations, that AGI is around the corner and that it will be very, very, dangerous. The book was written before the recent successes achieved by DeepMind and others, which leads me to believe that, if written now, his conclusions would be even more drastic.
Even though there is relatively new material here, a few stories and descriptions are interesting. Barrat makes extensive use of his conversations with the likes of Omohundro, Yudkwosky, Vassar, and Kurzweil and some stories are very entertaining, even though they look a bit like science fiction. Altogether, the book makes for some interesting, if somewhat unconvincing, reading.