The Beginning of Infinity

David Deutsch‘s newest book, The Beginning of Infinity is a tour de force argument for the power of science to transform the world. Deutsch’s main point is that human intelligence, once it reached the point where it started to be used to construct predictive explanations about the behavior of nature, became universal. Here, “universal” means that is can be used to understand any phenomenon and that this understanding leads to the creation of new technologies, which will be used to spread human intelligence throughout the known universe.

The Beginning of Infinity is not just one more book about science and how science is transforming our world. It is an all-encompassing analysis of the way human intelligence and human societies can develop or stagnate, by adopting or refusing to adopt the stance of looking for understandable explanations. Deutsch calls “static” those societies that refuse to look for new, non-supernatural explanations and “dynamic” those that are constantly looking for new explanations, based on objective and checkable evidence. Dynamic societies, he argues, develop and propagate rational memes, while static societies hold on to non-rational memes.

In the process, Deutsch talks authoritatively about evolution, the universality of computation, quantum mechanics, the multiverse and the paradoxes of infinity. They are not disparate subjects since they all become part of one single story on how humanity managed to understand and control the physical world.

Deutsch is at his best when arguing that science and technology are not only positive forces but that they are the only way to ensure the survival of Humanity in the long run. He argues, convincingly, against the myth of Gaia, the idea that the planet is a living being providing us with a generous and forgiving environment as well as against the related, almost universal, concern that technological developments are destroying the planet. This is nonsense, he argues. The future survival of Humanity and the hope of spreading human intelligence throughout the Cosmos reside entirely in our ability to control nature and to bend it to our will. Otherwise, we will follow the path of the many species that became extinct, for not being able to control the natural or unnatural phenomena that led to their extinction.

Definitely, the book to read if you care about the Future of Humanity.

 

Advertisements

Other Minds and Alien Intelligences

Peter Godfrey-Smith’s Other Minds makes for an interesting read on the subject of the evolution of intelligence. The book focuses on the octopus and the evolution of intelligent life.Octopuses belong to the same class of animals as squid and cuttlefish (the cephalopods), a class which separated from the evolutionary line that led to humans more than 600 million years ago. As Godfrey-Smith describes, many experiments have shown that octopuses are highly intelligent, and capable of complex behaviours that are deemed to require sophisticated forms of intelligence. They are, therefore, the closest thing to alien intelligence that we can get our hands on, since the evolution of their bodies and brains was, in the last 600 million years, independent from our own evolution.

The book explores very well this issue and dives deep into the matters of cephalopod intelligence. The nervous systems of octopuses brains are very different from ours and, in fact, they are not even organised in the same way. Each of the eight arms of an octopus is controlled by a separate “small brain”. These small brains report to, and are coordinated by, the central brain but retain some ability to act independently, an arrangement that is, to say the least, foreign to us.

Godfrey-Smith leads us through the branches of the evolutionary tree, and argues that advanced intelligence has evolved not once, but a number of times, perhaps four times as shown in the picture, in mammals, birds and two branches of cephalopods.

If his arguments are right, this work and this book provide an important insight on the nature of the bottlenecks that may block the evolution of higher intelligence, on Earth and in other planets. If, indeed, life on Earth has evolved higher intelligence multiple times, independently, this fact provides strong evidence that the evolution of brains, from simple nervous systems to complex ones, able to support higher intelligence, is not a significant bottleneck. That reduces the possible number of explanations for the fact that we have never observed technological civilisations on the Galaxy, also known as the Great Filter. Whatever the reasons, it is probably not because intelligence evolves only rarely in living organisms.

The scientific components of the book are admirably intertwined with the descriptions of the author’s appreciation of cephalopods, in particular, and marine life, in general. All in all, a very interesting read for those interested in the evolution of intelligence.

Picture (not to scale) from the book, adapted to show the possible places where higher intelligence evolved.

LIFE 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Max Tegmark’s latest book, LIFE 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, is an enthralling journey into the future, when the developments in artificial intelligence create a new type of lifeform on Earth.

Tegmark proposes to classify life in three stages. Life 1.0, unintelligent life, is able to change its hardware and improve itself only through the very slow and blind process of natural evolution. Single cell organisms, plants and simple animals are in this category. Life 2.0 is also unable to change its hardware (excepto through evolution, as for Life 1.0) but can change its software, stored in the brains, by using previous experience to learn new behaviors. Higher animals and humans, in particular, belong here. Humans can now, up to a limited point, change their hardware (through prosthetics, cellphones, computers and other devices) so they could also be considered now Life 2.1.

Life 3.0 is the new generation of life, which can change both its software and its hardware. The ability to change the computational support (i.e., the physical basis of computation) results from technological advances, which will only accelerate with the advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The book is really about the future of a world where AGI enables humanity to create a whole range of new technologies, and expand new forms of life through the cosmos.

The riveting prelude, The Tale of the Omega Team, is the story of the group of people who “created” the first intelligence explosion on planet Earth makes this a “hard-to-put-down” book.  The rest of the book goes through the consequences of this intelligence explosion, a phenomenon the author believes will undoubtedly take place, sooner or later. Chapter 4 focus on the explosion proper, and on how it could happen. Chapter 5, appropriately titled “Aftermath: The Next 10,000 Years” is one of the most interesting ones, and describes a number of long term scenarios that could result from such an event. These scenarios range from a benevolent and enlightened dictatorship (by the AI) to the enslaved God situation, where humanity keeps the AI in chains and uses it as a slave to develop new technologies, inaccessible to unaided humanity’s simpler minds. Always present, in these scenarios, are the risks of a hostile takeover by a human-created AGI, a theme that this book also addresses in depth, following on the ideas proposed by Nick Bostrom, in his book Superintelligence.

Being a cosmologist, Tegmark could not leave out the question of how life can spread through the Cosmos, a topic covered in depth in chapter 6, in a highly speculative fashion. Tegmark’s view is, to say the least, grandiose, envisaging a future where AGI will make it possible to spread life through the reachable universe, climbing the three levels of the Kardashev scale. The final chapters address (in a necessarily more superficial manner) the complex topics of goal setting for AI systems and artificial (or natural) consciousness. These topics somehow felt less well developed and more complete and convincing treatments can be found elsewhere. The book ends with a description of the mission of the Future of Life Institute, and the Asilomar AI Principles.

A book like this cannot leave anyone indifferent, and you will be likely to take one of two opposite sides: the optimistis, with many famous representatives, including Elon Mush, Stuart Russel and Nick Bostrom, who believe AGI can be developed and used to make humanity prosper; or the pessimists , whose more visible member is probably Yuval Noah Harari, who has voiced very serious concerns about technology developments in his book Homo Deus and in this review of Life 3.0.

Portuguese Edition of The Digital Mind

IST Press, the publisher of Instituto Superior Técnico, just published the Portuguese edition of The Digital Mind, originally published by MIT Press.

The Portuguese edition, translated by Jorge Pereirinha Pires, follow the same organization and has been reviewed by a number of sources. The back-cover reviews are by Pedro Domingos, Srinivas Devadas, Pedro Guedes de Oliveira and Francisco Veloso.

A pre-publication was made by the Público newspaper, under the title Até que mundos digitais nos levará o efeito da Rainha Vermelha, making the first chapter of the book publicly available.

There are also some publicly available reviews and pieces about this edition, including an episode of a podcast and a review in the radio.

The Great Filter: are we rare, are we first, or are we doomed?

Fermi’s Paradox (the fact that we never detected any sign of aliens even though, conceptually, life could be relatively common in the universe) has already been discussed in this blog, as new results come in about the rarity of life bearing planets, the discovery of new Earth-like planets, or even the detection of possible signs of aliens.

There are a number of possible explanations for Fermi’s Paradox and one of them is exactly that sufficiently advanced civilizations could retreat into their own planets, or star systems, exploring the vastness of the nano-world, becoming digital minds.

A very interesting concept related with Fermi’s Paradox is the Great Filter theory, which states, basically, that if intelligent civilizations do not exist in the galaxy we, as a civilization, are either rare, first, or doomed. As this post very clearly describes, one of these three explanations has to be true, if no other civilizations exist.

The Great Filter theory is based on Robin Hanson’s argument that the failure to find any extraterrestrial civilizations in the observable universe has to be explained by the fact that somewhere, in the sequence of steps that leads from planet formation to the creation of technological civilizations, there has to be an extremely unlikely event, which he called the Great Filter.

This Great Filter may be behind us, in the process that led from inorganic compounds to humans. That means that we, intelligent beings, are rare in the universe. Maybe the conditions that lead to life are extremely rare, either due to the instability of planetary systems, or to the low probability that life gets started in the first place, or to some other phenomenon that we were lucky enough to overcome.

It can also happen that conditions that make possible the existence of life are relatively recent in the universe. That would mean that conditions for life only became common in the universe (or the galaxy) in the last few billions years. In that case, we may not be rare, but we would be the first, or among the first, planets to develop intelligent life.

The final explanation is that the Great Filter is not behind us, but ahead of us. That would mean that many technological civilizations develop but, in the end, they all collapse, due to unknown factors (some of them we can guess). In this case, we are doomed, like all other civilizations that, presumably, existed.

There is, of course, another group of explanations, which states that advanced civilizations do exist in the galaxy, but we are simply too dumb to contact or to observe them. Actually, many people believe that we should not even be trying to contact them, by broadcasting radio-signals into space, advertising that we are here. It may, simply, be too dangerous.

 

Image by the Bureau of Land Management, available at Wikimedia Commons

The Digital Mind: How Science is Redefining Humanity

Following the release in the US,  The Digital Mind, published by MIT Press,  is now available in Europe, at an Amazon store near you (and possibly in other bookstores). The book covers the evolution of technology, leading towards the expected emergence of digital minds.

Here is a short rundown of the book, kindly provided by yours truly, the author.

New technologies have been introduced in human lives at an ever increasing rate, since the first significant advances took place with the cognitive revolution, some 70.000 years ago. Although electronic computers are recent and have been around for only a few decades, they represent just the latest way to process information and create order out of chaos. Before computers, the job of processing information was done by living organisms, which are nothing more than complex information processing devices, created by billions of years of evolution.

Computers execute algorithms, sequences of small steps that, in the end, perform some desired computation, be it simple or complex. Algorithms are everywhere, and they became an integral part of our lives. Evolution is, in itself, a complex and long- running algorithm that created all species on Earth. The most advanced of these species, Homo sapiens, was endowed with a brain that is the most complex information processing device ever devised. Brains enable humans to process information in a way unparalleled by any other species, living or extinct, or by any machine. They provide humans with intelligence, consciousness and, some believe, even with a soul, a characteristic that makes humans different from all other animals and from any machine in existence.

But brains also enabled humans to develop science and technology to a point where it is possible to design computers with a power comparable to that of the human brain. Artificial intelligence will one day make it possible to create intelligent machines and computational biology will one day enable us to model, simulate and understand biological systems and even complete brains with unprecedented levels of detail. From these efforts, new minds will eventually emerge, minds that will emanate from the execution of programs running in powerful computers. These digital minds may one day rival our own, become our partners and replace humans in many tasks. They may usher in a technological singularity, a revolution in human society unlike any other that happened before. They may make humans obsolete and even a threatened species or they make us super-humans or demi-gods.

How will we create these digital minds? How will they change our daily lives? Will we recognize them as equals or will they forever be our slaves? Will we ever be able to simulate truly human-like minds in computers? Will humans transcend the frontiers of biology and become immortal? Will humans remain, forever, the only known intelligence in the universe?

 

Are Fast Radio Bursts a sign of aliens?

In a recently published paper in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Manasvi Lingam and Abraham Loeb, from the Harvard Center for Astrophysics, propose a rather intriguing explanation for the phenomena known as Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs). FRBs are very powerful and very short bursts of radio waves, originating, as far as is known, galaxies other than our own. FRBs last for only a few milliseconds, but, during that interval, they shine with the power of millions of suns.

The origin of FRBs remains a mystery. Although they were first detected in 2007, in archived data taken in 2001, and a number of FRBs was observed since then, no clear explanation of the phenomenon was yet found. They could be emitted by supermassive neutron stars, or they could be the result of massive stellar flares, millions of times larger than anything observed in our Sun. All of these explanations, however, remain speculative, as they fail to fully account for the data and to explain the exact mechanisms that generate this massive bursts of energy.

The rather puzzling, and possibly far-fetched, explanation proposed by Lingam and Loeb, is that these short-lived, intense, pulses of radio waves can be artificial radio beams, used by advanced civilizations to power light sail starships.

Light sail starships have been discussed as one technology that could possibly be used to send missions to other stars. A light sail, attached to a starship, deploys into space, and is accelerated using energy in the sending planet by powerful light source, like a laser. Existing proposals are based on the idea of using very small starships, possibly weighting only a few grams, which could be accelerated by pointing a powerful laser at them. Such a starship could be accelerated to a significant fraction of the speed of light in only a few days, using a sufficiently powerful laser, and could reach the nearest stars in only a few decades.

In their article, Lingam and Loeb discuss the rather intriguing idea that FRBs can be the flashes caused by such a technology, used by other civilizations to power their light sail spaceships. By analyzing the characteristics of the bursts, they conclude that these civilizations would have to use massive amounts of energy to produce these pulses, used to power starships with many thousands of tons. The characteristics of the bursts are, according to computations performed by the authors, compatible with an origin in a planet with a size approximately the size of the Earth.

The authors use the available data, to compute an expected number of FRB-enabled civilizations in the galaxy, under the assumption that such a technology is widespread throughout the universe. The reach the conclusion that a few thousands of this type of civilizations in our galaxy would account for the expected frequency of observed FRBs. Needless to say, a vast number of assumptions is used here to reach such a conclusion, which is, they point out, consistent with the values one reaches by using Drake’s equation with optimistic parameters.

The paper has been analyzed by many secondary sources, including The Economist and The Washington Post.

 

Image source: ESO. Available at Wikimedia Commons.