Europe wants to have one exascale supercomputer by 2023

On March 23rd, in Rome, seven European countries signed a joint declaration on High Performance Computing (HPC), committing to an initiative that aims at securing the required budget and developing the technologies necessary to acquire and deploy two exascale supercomputers, in Europe, by 2023. Other Member States will be encouraged to join this initiative.

Exascale computers, defined as machines that execute 10 to the 18th power operations per second will be roughly 10 times more powerful than the existing fastest supercomputer, the Sunway TaihuLight, which clocks in at 93 petaflop/s, or 93 times 10 to the 15 floating point operations per second. No country in Europe has, at the moment, any machine among the 10 most powerful in the world. The declaration, and related documents, do not fully specify that these machines will clock at more than one exaflop/s, given that the requirements for supercomputers are changing with the technology, and floating point operations per second may not be the right measure.

This renewed interest of European countries in High Performance Computing highlights the fact that this technology plays a significant role in the economic competitiveness of research and development. Machines with these characteristics are used mainly in complex system simulations, in physics, chemistry, materials, fluid dynamics, but they are also useful in storing and processing the large amounts of data required to create intelligent systems, namely by using deep learning.

Andrus Ansip, European Commission Vice-President for the Digital Single Market remarked that: “High-performance computing is moving towards its next frontier – more than 100 times faster than the fastest machines currently available in Europe. But not all EU countries have the capacity to build and maintain such infrastructure, or to develop such technologies on their own. If we stay dependent on others for this critical resource, then we risk getting technologically ‘locked’, delayed or deprived of strategic know-how. Europe needs integrated world-class capability in supercomputing to be ahead in the global race. Today’s declaration is a great step forward. I encourage even more EU countries to engage in this ambitious endeavour”.

The European Commission press release includes additional information on the next steps that will be taken in the process.

Photo of the signature event, by the European Commission. In the photo, from left to right, the signatories: Mark Bressers (Netherlands), Thierry Mandon (France), Etienne Schneider (Luxembourg), Andrus Ansip (European Commission), Valeria Fedeli (Italy), Manuel Heitor (Portugal), Carmen Vela (Spain) and Herbert Zeisel (Germany).

 

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Will the fourth industrial revolution destroy or create jobs?

The impact of the fourth industrial revolution on jobs has been much discussed.

On one side, there are the traditional economists, who argue that technological advances have always created more and better jobs than the ones they destroyed. On the other side, the people that believe that with the arrival of artificial intelligence and robotics, there will simply not exist enough jobs that cannot be done by machines.

So, in this post, I try to present a balanced analysis on the subject, as deeply as allowed by the space and time available.

Many studies have addressed the question of which jobs are more likely to be destroyed by automation.  This study, by McKinsey, provides a very comprehensive analysis.

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Recently, The Economist also published a fairly balanced analysis of the topic, already posted in this blog. In this analysis, The Economist makes a reference to a number of studies on the jobs that are at high risk but, in the end, it sides with the opinion that enough jobs will be created to replace the ones technology will destroy.

A number of books and articles have been written on the topic, including “Raising the Floor“, “The Wealth of Humans: Work, Power, and Status in the Twenty-first Century“, “The Second Machine Age“, and “No More Work“, some of them already reviewed in this blog.

In most cases, the authors of these books advocate the need for significant changes in the way society is organized, and on the types of social contracts that need to be drawn. Guaranteeing every one a universal basic income is a proposal that has become very popular, as a way to address the question of how humanity will live in a time when there are much less jobs to go around.

Further evidence that some deep change is in the cards is provided by data that shows that, with the begining of the XXI century, income is being moved away from jobs (and workers) towards capital (and large companies):

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On the other side of the debate, there are many people who believe that humans will always be able to adapt and add value to society, regardless of what machines can or cannot do. David Autor, in his TED talk, makes a compelling point that many times before it was argued that “this time is different” and that it never was.

Other articles, including this one in the Washington Post, argue that the fears are overblown. The robots will not be coming in large numbers, to replace humans. Not in the near future, anyway.

Other economists, such as  Richard Freeman, in an article published in Harvard Magazine agree and also believe that the fears are unwarranted: “We should worry less about the potential displacement of human labor by robots than about how to share fairly across society the prosperity that the robots produce.

His point is that the problem is not so much on the lack of jobs, but on the depression of wages. Jobs may still exist, but will not be well paid, and the existing imbalances in income distribution will only become worst.

Maybe, in the end, this opinion represents a balanced synthesis of the two competing views: jobs will still exist, for anyone who wants to take them, but there will be competition (from robots and intelligent agents) for them, pushing down the wages.

The White House report on the future of Artificial Intelligence

The US administration has released a comprehensive report on the future of Artificial Intelligence (AI). According to the White House blog, the report surveys the current state of AI, its existing and potential applications, and the questions that progress in AI raise for society and public policy.

washington04The report includes a large number of recommendations related to the need for society, in general, and federal agencies, in particular, to pay attention to the impact of AI in the economy, security, safety and quality of life of the countries. These recommendations include, among others:

  • investigating further the consequences of AI and automation in the job market;
  • including ethics, security, safety, privacy and related topics in the university curricula of AI, machine learning and computer science;
  • closely monitoring and reporting the advances in this area, by the subcommittee on AI and machine learning;
  • prioritizing basic and long-term AI research by the Federal Government.

The report provides a rather comprehensive analysis of the impact of AI in fields as diverse as the job growth, national security, transportation safety and social justice, and may contribute to raising awareness in the society about the impact of this important technology.

 

 

 

A review of Microsoft Hololens

By a kind invitation from Microsoft, I had the opportunity to experiment, from a user’s perspective, the new Microsoft Hololens. Basically, I was able to wear them for a while and to interact with a number of applications that were spread around a room.hololens

From the outside, the result is not very impressive, as the picture above shows. In a room, which was mostly empty (except for the other guests, wearing similar devices), you can see me wearing the lenses, raising my hand to pull-up a menu, using the menu-pull up gesture.

From the inside, things are considerably more interesting. During configuration, the software identifies the relevant features of the room, and creates an internal model of the space and of the furniture in it.

Applications, both 3D and 2D, can then be deployed in different spaces in the room, using a number of control gestures and menus. Your view of the applications is superimposed with the view of the room, leading to a semi-realistic impression of virtual reality, mixed with the “real” reality. You can move around the 3D holograms in the room (in this case an elephant, a mime and a globe, like the one below, among others).

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You can also interact with them using a virtual pointing device (basically a mouse, controlled by your head movements). 2D applications, like video-streaming, appear as suspended screens (or screens lying on top of desks and tables) and can be controlled using the same method. Overall, the impression is very different from the one obtained using 3D Virtuall Reality googles, like Google Cardboard or Oculus Rift. For instance, in a conversation (pictured below) you would be seating in a chair, facing an hologram of your guest, possibly discussing some 3D object sitting between the two.

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Overall, I was much more impressed with the possibilities of this technology than I was with Google glasses, which I tried a few years back. The quality of the holograms was quite good, and the integration with the real world quite convincing. The applications need to be developed, though.

On the minus side, the device is somewhat heavy and less than comfortable to wear for extended periods. This limitation could probably be addressed by future developments of the device.

A robot chef in every kitchen?

Advances in robotics, image processing and artificial intelligence are quickly opening the door to new areas of application of robotics. Moley Robotics has been developing the world’s first fully-automated and intelligent cooking robot, which cooks recipes by mimicking the movements of a master cook and (more importantly) clears the kitchen when he is done.

As you can see on the video (also available in Moley website), the robotics hands manipulate food, cooking tools, and other implements in much the same way a human chef would.

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The first prototype was developed in collaboration with Shadow Robotics, Yachtline, DYSEGNO, Sebastian Conran and Stanford. The robot consists of a pair of articulated robotic hands that can reproduce the entire function of human hands with the same speed, sensitivity and movement.

According to Moley, “The cooking skills of Master Chef Tim Anderson, winner of the BBC Master Chef title were recorded on the system – every motion, nuance and flourish – then replayed as his exact movements through the robotic hands.”

It remains unclear how adaptable the system is to changes in the position of the ingredients, tools, and plates, but these are challenges that will become less and serious as the technology evolves.

Image credits: Moley Robotics

Empathy with robots – science fiction or reality?

A number of popular videos made available by Boston Dynamics (a Google company) has shown different aspects of the potential of bipedal and quadrupedal robots to move around in rough terrain, and to carry out complex tasks. The behavior of the robots is strangely natural, even though they are clearly man-made mechanical contraptions.

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In a recent interview given at Disrupt SF, Boston Dynamics CEO Marc Raibert put the emphasis on making the robots friendlier. Being around a 250 pound robot that can move very fast may be very dangerous to humans, and the company is creating smaller and friendlier robots that can move around safely inside peoples houses.

This means that this robots can have many more applications, other than military ones. They may serve as butlers, servants or even as pets.

It is hard to predict what sort of emotional relationship these robots may eventually become able to create with their owners. Their animal-like behavior makes them almost likeable to us, despite their obviously mechanic appearance.

In some of these videos, humans intervene to make the jobs harder for the robots, kicking them, and moving things around in a way that looks frustrating to the robots. To many viewers, this may seem to amount to acts of actual robot cruelty, since the robots seem to become sad and frustrated. You can see some of those images around minute 3 of the video above, made available by TechCrunch and Boston Dynamics or in the (fake) commercial below.

Our ideas that robots and machines don’t have feelings may be challenged in the near future, when human or animal-like mechanical creatures become common. After all, extensive emotional attachment to Roombas robotic vacuum cleaners is nothing new!

Videos made available by TechCrunch and Boston Dynamics.

Microsoft HoloLens merges the real and the virtual worlds

The possibility to superimpose the real physical world and the virtual world created by computers has been viewed, for a long time, as a technology looking for a killer application.

The fact is that, until now, the technology was incipient and the user experience less than perfect. Microsoft is trying to change that, with their new product, Microsoft HoloLens. As of April this year, Microsoft is shipping the pre-production version of HoloLens, for developers.

The basic idea is that, by using HoloLens, computer generated objects can be superimposed with actual physical objects. Instead of using the “desktop” metaphor, users will be able to deploy applications in actual physical space. Non-holographic applications run as floating virtual screens  that will stick to a specific point in the physical space or move with the user. Holographic enabled applications will let you to use the physical space for virtual objects as you would for physical objects. For instance, if you leave a report, say, on top of a desk, it will stay there until you pick it up.

hololensThe IEEE Spectrum report on the device, by Rod Furlan, provides some interesting additional information and gives the device a clear  “thumbs up”.

The HoloLens, a self-contained computer weighting 580 grams, is powered by a 32-bit Intel Atom processor and Microsoft’s custom Holographic Processing Unit (HPU).

The following YouTube video, made available by Microsoft, gives some idea of what the product may become, once sufficiently powerful applications are developed.

Image and video credits: Microsoft HoloLens website.